The year-on-year inflation rate has been falling (11.5% in FEB., the lowest value since AUG.2015), but is expected to reverse its path in the 2nd half of 2023 (to 12.3% at the end of the year, according to the IMF, which predicts a drop to single digits from next year). Monthly inflation has remained stable (in FEB. at 0.9%), despite the exchange rate depreciation at the end of 2022.

The revision of the IMF projections (APR.) points to a GDP growth of 3.5% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024. Oil GDP should contribute negatively in the short term, mainly due to the stoppage of the Dalia oil field, in Block 17, in the 1st semester. Daily oil production in MAR. dropped to 1 million barrels per day (mbd), one of the lowest levels in recent years. READ MORE