The loss of operational capacity of the guerrillas in the Rovuma region (north, natural gas area in the province), demonstrates that the reinforcement of the military presence through foreign contingents since JUL.2021 has not yet triggered a significant reaction on the part of of the armed groups. However, guerrilla pockets persist in Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, Nangade and Muidumbe.

Internal causes, particularly in terms of recruitment, remain dominant and, in some cases, aggravated. In the central-south region of the province (Montepuez, Ancuabe, Chiure), which is currently at risk of attacks, the instability that characterizes the various agricultural and mining operations will likely have consequences on the participation of the unemployed in the jihadist movement (“al-shabbabs”, as they are known locally), attracted by propaganda and a desire for justice. READ MORE